Strafe’s NFL Picks for Week 6

evilmanningface

I have a few rules when it comes to sports gambling.

Rule No. 1: “I WILL NOT LOSE.  When in doubt, take the points.”

Another rule is, “If you give me 20+ points in an NFL game, I’m taking the points.”

In Week 3, the Jacksonville Jaguars got 19.5 points against the Seahawks in Seattle. I took the 19.5. Of course, the Seahawks won by 28.

In Week 5, the Jaguars got 11.5 points against the Rams (the RAMS!!!). I took the 11.5. Of course, the Rams won by 14.

In Week 6, the Jags are getting anywhere between 26.5 and 28 points against the Broncos. I’m struggling with this line.

The case to pick Denver: They’re undefeated. Their average margin of victory is 18.2 points. Their point totals this season: 49, 41, 37, 52, 51. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are winless. Their average margin of defeat is 22.4 points. Their point totals this season: 2, 9, 17, 3, 20.

The case to pick Jacksonville: They’re an NFL team getting 26.5 points. And they’ve heard about it all week. Purely they must have some pride.

I am absolutely torn on this one… which means take the points… right?

We’ll see.

Here are the Week 6 picks.  (Home team in CAPS)

NY Giants (+7.5) over CHICAGO
I had Chicago until 8:29 PM EDT. Excellent flip-flop by me.

TAMPA BAY (+0.5) over Philadelphia
Nicke Foles on the road vs. Mike Glennon at home. Ugh. When in doubt…

MINNESOTA (-2.5) over Carolina
Win or lose, our prayers are with Adrian Peterson and his family.

Detroit (-2.5) over CLEVELAND
Like last week, I retain the right to switch this pick if Megatron is out.

BALTIMORE (+2.5) over Green Bay
The Patriots have the best home record in the NFL since ’08. Guess who’s No. 2?

HOUSTON (-7.5) over St. Louis
Matt Schaub has to get it together against the Rams… right?

Cincinnati (-7.5) over BUFFALO
Did you see Jeff Tuel last week? Thad Lewis was BEHIND HIM.

KANSAS CITY (-8.5) over Oakland
Very tempted to take 8.5 in a divisional game. But not in #ARROWHEAD.

Pittsburgh (+2.5) over NY JETS (UPSET SPECIAL)
If I have any chance of winning my Jets under 5.5 wins bet with @Harlem4Dais, I need (shuddering) a Steelers win. Sorry Raven Nation… this is business.

SEATTLE (-13.5) over Tennessee (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road.

Jacksonville (+26.5) over DENVER
See Rule No. 1

New Orleans (+2.5) over NEW ENGLAND
New England 31, New Orleans 30

Arizona (+11.5) over SAN FRANCISCO  (UNDERDOG SPECIAL)
Arizona may have its issues… stopping the run is not one of them.

DALLAS (+5.5) over Washington
Dallas wins but not by much.

Last Week: 8-6
This Season: 32-45

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