Strafe’s NFL Picks for Week 7

Case-Keenum

It usually takes me four weeks to figure out where the teams are, from a gambling perspective.

Not this year. I felt as clueless as ever after four weeks.

After this past Sunday’s games, I think I’ve finally nailed a few ground rules for the 2013 season. You’ll see them along with this week’s picks. (Home team in CAPS.)

ARIZONA (+6.5) over Seattle
It’s probably better for you that you see my Thursday night pick on Fridays at this point. (Although ‘Zona was 30 yards away from the backdoor cover late in the fourth. But I digress.)

PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) over Dallas
Rule No. 1: Avoid taking Dallas when they’re giving points against a good offense. Philly can score and the Dallas defense has 1.5 guys I’m afraid of.

WASHINGTON (-1.5) over Chicago
I had both these teams falling off a cliff this season. So far the ‘Skins have held up their end of the bargain. Looks like Robert Garbage Time III is getting his legs back. I can see Shanahan read option-ing all over the not-as-stout-as-you-think Bears’ defense.

Cincinnati (+2.5) over DETROIT
Rule No. 2: Cincinnati plays to their level of competition. They can beat anyone and lose to anyone. Just be safe and take the points.

ATLANTA  (-7.5) over Tampa Bay
I refuse to pick a shaky rookie QB on the road against a team coming off a bye.

Buffalo (+8.5) over MIAMI
I am telling you right now, if Matt Flynn ends up starting, TAKE MIAMI.

New England (-3.5) over NY JETS
No matter what a delirious Jets fan tells you, this is their Super Bowl, so they’ll play hard and… wait a minute… oh… my… God… it’s GRONNNNNK!

CAROLINA (-6.5) over St. Louis
I like Carolina’s front seven against any shaky QB. No matter what the Texans tried to pull last week, Sam Bradford is a shaky QB.

JACKSONVILLE (+7.5) over San Diego (UNDERDOG SPECIAL)
West Coast team traveling 2,300 miles east on a short week for a 1 pm game. Backdoor cover, at the very least. I think.

KANSAS CITY (-6.5) over Houston (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Case Keenum. On the road. In #ARROWHEAD. Yeah, aight.

San Francisco (-4.5) over TENNESSEE
I refuse to pick Ryan Fitzpatrick unless he’s getting more than a TD.

Baltimore (+2.5) over PITTSBURGH
The former “Best Rivalry In Football” titleholder. This game should always be Home Team -3, and you should always take the points. (Especially when the home team is 1-4.)

GREEN BAY (-10.5) over Cleveland
The extra half point is enticing… but not enough to take the QB who thought THIS was a good decision.

INDIANAPOLIS (+6.5) over Denver (UPSET SPECIAL)
The passing of the torch. Colts 24, Broncos 21

Minnesota (+3.5) over NY GIANTS
Rule No. 3: I refuse to take any 0-6 team giving points, period.

Last Week: 8-7
This Season: 39-53

Strafe’s NFL Picks for Week 6

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I have a few rules when it comes to sports gambling.

Rule No. 1: “I WILL NOT LOSE.  When in doubt, take the points.”

Another rule is, “If you give me 20+ points in an NFL game, I’m taking the points.”

In Week 3, the Jacksonville Jaguars got 19.5 points against the Seahawks in Seattle. I took the 19.5. Of course, the Seahawks won by 28.

In Week 5, the Jaguars got 11.5 points against the Rams (the RAMS!!!). I took the 11.5. Of course, the Rams won by 14.

In Week 6, the Jags are getting anywhere between 26.5 and 28 points against the Broncos. I’m struggling with this line.

The case to pick Denver: They’re undefeated. Their average margin of victory is 18.2 points. Their point totals this season: 49, 41, 37, 52, 51. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are winless. Their average margin of defeat is 22.4 points. Their point totals this season: 2, 9, 17, 3, 20.

The case to pick Jacksonville: They’re an NFL team getting 26.5 points. And they’ve heard about it all week. Purely they must have some pride.

I am absolutely torn on this one… which means take the points… right?

We’ll see.

Here are the Week 6 picks.  (Home team in CAPS)

NY Giants (+7.5) over CHICAGO
I had Chicago until 8:29 PM EDT. Excellent flip-flop by me.

TAMPA BAY (+0.5) over Philadelphia
Nicke Foles on the road vs. Mike Glennon at home. Ugh. When in doubt…

MINNESOTA (-2.5) over Carolina
Win or lose, our prayers are with Adrian Peterson and his family.

Detroit (-2.5) over CLEVELAND
Like last week, I retain the right to switch this pick if Megatron is out.

BALTIMORE (+2.5) over Green Bay
The Patriots have the best home record in the NFL since ’08. Guess who’s No. 2?

HOUSTON (-7.5) over St. Louis
Matt Schaub has to get it together against the Rams… right?

Cincinnati (-7.5) over BUFFALO
Did you see Jeff Tuel last week? Thad Lewis was BEHIND HIM.

KANSAS CITY (-8.5) over Oakland
Very tempted to take 8.5 in a divisional game. But not in #ARROWHEAD.

Pittsburgh (+2.5) over NY JETS (UPSET SPECIAL)
If I have any chance of winning my Jets under 5.5 wins bet with @Harlem4Dais, I need (shuddering) a Steelers win. Sorry Raven Nation… this is business.

SEATTLE (-13.5) over Tennessee (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road.

Jacksonville (+26.5) over DENVER
See Rule No. 1

New Orleans (+2.5) over NEW ENGLAND
New England 31, New Orleans 30

Arizona (+11.5) over SAN FRANCISCO  (UNDERDOG SPECIAL)
Arizona may have its issues… stopping the run is not one of them.

DALLAS (+5.5) over Washington
Dallas wins but not by much.

Last Week: 8-6
This Season: 32-45

Strafe’s NFL Picks For Week 5

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***UPDATE*** Picks updated Sunday at 11:52 AM EDT with news that Lions WR Calvin Johnson is inactive against Green Bay.

Every week, I pick against the Cleveland Browns. It doesn’t matter if they’re giving points or taking points. I pick against the Browns every week.

And every week, I lose.

Well, not EVERY week. I picked against them Week 1, when they were giving 1/2 point to the Dolphins at home. Miami’s 23-10 further solidified my future decision to pick against the Browns.

Why do I pick against the Browns? Simple. They’re the Browns.

Ask yourself… how many times in the last three years have you felt REALLY comfortable picking the Browns?

Even after they beat me three straight weeks, I felt hella confident picking against them this week at home against the Bills, for these reasons:

  1. They’re the Browns.
  2. IMHO, the Browns shouldn’t give 4.5 to anyone.
  3. They’re the Browns.

Of course, what happens last night? Brown 37, Bills 24 (A game in which the Bills led 24-17 halfway through the 3rd quarter)

Partially due to the guy above in white, Jeff Tuel.

If Manuel plays the entire game, the Bills probably cover. But he didn’t. And they didn’t.

Maybe God is trying to tell me something. And this is the same God who hates Cleveland.

Next week, the Browns host Detroit. We’ll see who I pick then.

Here are the Week 5 picks. (Home team in CAPS)

Buffalo (+4.5) over CLEVELAND (Bollocks)
Seattle (-2.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
CINCINNATI (-1.5) over New England
Baltimore (+2.5) over MIAMI
Jacksonville (+11.5) over ST. LOUIS (Jacksonville, if you don’t cover against THESE guys…)
Kansas City (-2.5) over TENNESSEE
New Orleans (+0.5) over CHICAGO (UPSET SPECIAL: The Saints win outright.)
GREEN BAY (-6.5) over Detroit
NY GIANTS (-2.5) over Philadelphia
Carolina (-1.5) over ARIZONA
DALLAS (+7.5) over Denver (UNDERDOG SPECIAL: This is the best pass rush Peyton’s seen all year.)
OAKLAND (+4.5) over San Diego
SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) over Houston
ATLANTA (-8.5) over NY Jets (LOCK OF THE WEEK: Falcons 31, Jets 10)

Last Week: 6-9
This Season: 23-40

Strafe’s NFL Picks for Week 4

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Bad news: Another losing record for me last week at 7-9.
Good news: I was 3-13 the week before. Nowhere to go but up!

Because it’s Sunday morning, analysis will be limited. Besides, I need to give @KanTheWord as much time as possible to rip my picks to shreds.

Here are the Week 4 picks (Home team in CAPS):

ST. LOUIS (+3.5) over San Francisco (Whoops!)
Baltimore (+3.5) over BUFFALO
Indianapolis (-7.5) over JACKSONVILLE (Although this REEKS of letdown game for Indy.)
HOUSTON (+2.5) over Seattle (UPSET SPECIAL: Houston 24, Seattle 21)
Cincinnati (-4.5) over CLEVELAND (It’s still Brian Hoyer, people.)
DETROIT (-2.5) over Chicago
Pittsburgh (-1.5) over Minnesota (in London. Matt Cassel vs. a Dick LeBeau defense? Sheeeeeet.)
Arizona (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY
KANSAS CITY (-4.5) over NY Giants
TENNESSEE (-3.5) over NY Jets (LOCK OF THE WEEK: The “Happy To Be 2-1” Jets fan can be quiet.)
OAKLAND (+2.5) over Washington
Philadelphia (+10.5) over DENVER (UNDERDOG SPECIAL: Philly gets the back door cover.)
Dallas (-1.5) over SAN DIEGO
ATLANTA (-1.5) over New England
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) over Miami (BTW, I was DEAD wrong about Ryan Tannehill*.)

Last Week: 7-9
This Season: 17-31

* – Before, during and after the 2012 NFL Draft, I was convinced that Ryan Tannehill would be the worst quarterback in the league (he was a converted WR at Texas A&M who had 20 starts in college). McFly, correctly, said it would be Blaine Gabbert.

This Is It | 1.30.12: Super Bowl Preview

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On this week’s show,  William H. Strafe is joined by StreetzDr. JNess, Midtown Mo & Nate (from Japan!) to discuss…

  • Who wins Super Bowl XLVII? Who’s the MVP? Final Score? (1:00 mark)
  • Is Ray Lewis juicing? Do we even care? What the hell is deer antler spray? (6:00)
  • How to bet the Super Bowl & the best prop bets to make (19:30)
  • The Rajon Rondo injury and how it affects the Eastern Conference playoff race (29:00)

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